Другое : Economic crisis in Russia (Российский кризис 1998 года)
Economic crisis in Russia (Российский кризис 1998 года)
ESSAY.
FINAL DRAFT.
By Anton Matiukhin.
24, NOVEMBER 1998.
Международный Институт Экономики и Финансов, 1 курс, Высшая
Школа Экономики.
ICEF, gr. 2.
It is obvious almost to everyone, that 1/6 of the land
is now in deep economical and political crisis and the whole world is waiting
to see how the country will emerge from it. Russia’s chaos was caused by
economic turmoil and political upheaval. Economic slump on the stock market,
devaluation of the ruble, a default on foreign debt by banks and government are
parts of a climax and the general instability of Russia is worsen by them.
These things sometimes happen in the process of transforming a country from a
command into a market economy.[1]
There was a sharp increase in the inflation level
after it has been brought down to as little as 5.6% a year in July. The prices
began to rise fast and a lot of people were thrown far beyond the poverty
level.
The anatomy of the financial crisis consists of
several causes. The first cause is the so-called “Asian factor”. There was
economic turmoil in Thailand first and then it spread all over Asia: South
Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia in 1996- 1997. "All these
countries and more have seen their economies wrecked over the last couple of
years. Now Russia has its currency heading for the basement and is basically
defaulting on its national debt". [2]It
has scared foreign investors. “This cooled their enthusiasm for investment in
riskier economies” (Russia today) and they start taking their money out of its
stocks and converting their rubles into dollars. It will take a lot of time for
them to gain confidence in Russian “emerging” market again.[3]
Although the Russian government was insisting it would
not devalue the currency, it had to float the ruble three days later. For
propping it up the Central Bank drained its reserves- $1 billion a week for
ruble’s defense. This also increased the devaluation.
Poor tax collections forced Russian authorities to raise
funds to cover its expenses. It has been floating GKOs (short-term treasury
bonds) which provided as high as 240 percent interest. Although the state
attracted billions of dollars, it needed to borrow more to pay off the
short-term bonds. But without tax revenue, the government would not be able
either to pay the international bills or maintain essential services. It cannot
afford to pay state workers and without their wages, they cannot pump money
back into the economy. Large fiscal deficit makes Russia highly unprotected
from swings in market sentiment.
Another thing, which sank the crisis, was a drop in
world oil prices. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producing country and
oil is the great hope of its economy, because unfortunately its production
level is not good enough not to let Russian huge natural resources to be sold
out.
All these above-mentioned problems seem to be very
complicated and, of course, there are no quick fixes available. But, from my
point of view, the solution key word is not “help” but “self- help”.
"Currently institutions such as the world bank and the IMF have been
formed to be the lenders of last resort to governments who themselves control
the various central banks which are the lenders of last resort for people within
their countries."[4]
However, these institutions are no longer really in effective control. There
are people at the top of this pyramid, those who are really making money from
it, who are more concerned about their relative
power and wealth than with the overall damage that is being caused by
this current chain reaction of a collapse. A fundamental reform of the world financial
system needs to happen to clear up this mess.[5]
The World
Bank should not help the countries with “emerging” markets only with money and
then make itself richer from loans, but it must be restructured into the
knowledge bank. It must provide these countries with specialists, teaching how
to act themselves in critical situations. World Bank must also exchange its
experience with them to prevent them from “inventing the bicycle” once more. It
must teach these states how to help themselves.
I do not
know, whether it is possible, but it would be good if the IMF and the World
Bank cancel all loans given to developing countries with “emerging” economies
for the sake of the world’s safety. Otherwise their economies would be doomed
to be destroyed because of the short-term debts, which these countries need to
pay back. But on the other hand, if it have had cancelled, no organisation
including the IMF would have been looking forward to further negotiations with
such countries and provided them with credits.
But the
worst thing is that the economic crisis entailed the political crisis. Because,
as one of the most famous writers, philosophers and politicians of the
Renaissance Niccolò Machiavelli said, "the only way to reach
prosperity of the country is to have a firm, determined and intelligent leader,
who will be an avatar of the majority's interests, and who will have a great
estimation among the people". And the Russian president Boris Yeltsin has
already lost all the consideration, and the things were getting worse and worse
after the beginning of the crisis. The recent ordered murder of the famous
deputy and democrat Galina Starovoytova was a signal that lawlessness in Russia
has reached its apogee. She was among those few people, who performed real
action. As a peacemaker she went to many "hot spots" and tried to
stop the bloodshed. But she was a real obstacle for people who did not want
human rights and laws to be the most precious thing. After this incident, all
democratic parties have realised the necessity of joining their forces against
their common enemies- communists and fascists. It may seem unbelievable, but at
the end of XX-th century there is a serious threat of turning Russia into a
nationalistic and fascist country, because the number of people (especially
young) joining different nationalistic organisations. The opposition, which is
always very active, would not hesitate a second if there would be a little
chance to overtake the power.
I think
that in the case with Russia, despite the IMF wants our authorities to provide
it with their economic program first and then they will be able to give Russia
credit, giving a loan now will prevent the country from a possible revolution.
And this is the urgent measure to be taken. For a great amount of people the
crisis was a proof of an insolvency of market economy, at least they think it
was. This caused the act of protest on the 7-th of October. Fortunately it has
not such scale as it was expected to. But, in my opinion, it was not a failure
of market economy itself but of a present inefficient and weak government. The
important thing is that the politicians stop playing politics and dividing the
power and entrust together to the serious and urgent measures that Russia
needs. Although I do not like the new government and the Prime Minister very
much, I hope they will be firm enough and well disciplined to continue working
on restructuring country’s economy.
Sources:
Anatomy of a Financial
Crisis. Russia Today; www.russiatoday.com;
Fr. Aug. 21 1998.
Russian Financial
Crisis. #"#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title="">[1] Anatomy of a Financial Crisis.
Russia Today; www.russiatoday.com;
Fr. Aug. 21 1998.
[2] Russian Financial
Crisis. #"#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title="">[3] Anatomy of a Financial Crisis.
Russia Today; www.russiatoday.com; Fr. Aug. 21 1998.
[4] Global Capitalism. The
Economist. Sept. 12 1998.
[5] Russian Financial
Crisis. #"_Hlt436585293"> Aug. 39 1998.
|
